Re (2): random walk forecast
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Отправлено Quark, 14:24:46 18/09/2002
в ответ на: Re: random walk forecast, отправлено zayatsz, 07:39:47 18/09/2002
 
In fact, the traders who trade at random are destined to lose on the average (e.g. they lose to informed traders, bluffers, etc. ) This means that «most traders» can not trade worse than random J But those
 
who trade by trying to guess the levels at a fixed day and making a bet on it must trade worse than random indeed, and I think that can be proven.
 
 
For me it is a little bit statistically extraordinary that nobody from other 10 participants was happy enough to win J I think this is a peculiar feature of EESR.
 
 
Best regards


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