The model becomes more interesting if we introduce the risk. Suppose that in the 1st scheme the probability to lose the money is p1=0.5, and in the 2nd scheme p2=0.29 (per each bet). Now the avarege gain:
Without leverage:
I. (4-1)*0.5 — 1*0.5 = 1 ruble
II. (4-1)*0.71*0.71 — 1*(1-0.71*0.71) = 1 ruble.
Now just for fun calculate the average gain/loss with a leverage.
